大陆铁道部部长刘志军的突然落马，引来海内外各界的关注。中共官方媒体仅指出刘志军涉及严重违纪，没有透露刘志军落马的具体原因，由此引来各种猜测。
在2011年大陆返乡运输最紧张的时刻，铁道部部长刘志军被免职。这个消息对于中国民众来说无疑是爆炸性的。而且事情发生的非常突然，甚至中国媒体在20分钟之前还在报导有关刘志军视察铁路工作的新闻。
关于刘志军下台的原因，中国天网人权事务中心工作人员蒲飞，根据铁路内部系统的讨论和民间资讯来分析，提出三种观点。
蒲飞：“第一是政治斗争。其次有人认为，这么大的高铁建设，在中国现在几乎等于零的那种监督体制下，肯定会出现一种大规模的腐败现象。还有第三种说法，就是刘志军有那可能与前段时间出的高铁供应商的行贿案有关。
现年58岁的刘志军，19岁入铁路部门，从养路工做起，2003年拜官铁道部长。刘志军一直被认为是中共前总书记江泽民一手提拔起来的。有报导说，他在江泽民任总书记期间，陪同江泽民外出巡视，鞍前马后的跟随。
2002年9月，中共十六大前，刘志军被任命为铁道部党组书记、副部长。这一任命是江泽民离任前安排的，海外中文媒体评论，这是江泽民对刘志军多年伺候的酬劳。
蒲飞：“刘志军对江有些过分尊崇的举动，他在江下台以后，仍然至始跟随。他们认为从政治体制来说是触怒现在最高领导人的一个迹象。”
刘志军的落马，也引起西方媒体的关注和报导。
据法国媒体的报导，刘志军在11号还公开露面，但到了12号晚上，铁道部官方网站已经删除了刘志军以及其他领导层的资料，显示问题十分严重，已经无法再拖，而由最高层亲自拍板定案。
英国《卫报》2月13号则引述香港《南华早报》报导说，对刘志军的调查有可能扩大到其他官员，因为铁道部已经从网站上移除了介绍这些领导层的内容，预计铁道部将有一些人事变动。
蒲飞：“冉云飞先生提到过一句话：中国是一个『互害社会』，没有人有安全感，刘志军你今天可以是全世界第一大国企铁道部部长，但你一个小时后极可能变成阶下囚，而且没有任何预兆。有没有涉及到更高层的腐败啊，就看他怎么讲了。”
刘志军腐败案件曝光的时间，是中共召开“十八大”前夕，同时，突尼斯的茉莉花革命，以及埃及民众反独裁政府大示威活动取得了胜利，民主自由的热潮正席卷整个国际社会。有评论认为，中共这时候把刘志军抛出来，是为了转移民众对茉莉花革命的视线。
蒲飞认为，以前抓了一个陈希同，大家会高兴，但现在抓了一个刘志军，反而让人引起反思。
蒲飞：“你抓人只是事后的补救，为什么没有事前的监督啊？为什么全世界都在修高速公路、修高铁，他们的部长不出事，我们的部长要出事。这已经开始让大家進行反思了。”
蒲飞说，在中国体制内外都有很多人提出，中共必须先解决政治犯和“法轮功”问题、以及“监督体制”和“选举体制”的问题，现在抓一个刘志军出来，只是一种换汤不换药的做法。
Inside Story of the Demoted Minister of Railway
The sudden dismissal of China』s Minister of Railway,
Liu Zhijun, gets wide attention both home and abroad.
Official media only said that it was due to Liu』s
"severe violation of discipline" without any details,
stirring up all sorts of speculation.
Liu Zhijun was removed from office at the peak of
the New Year season transportation.
It is undoubtedly explosive news.
It also happened very quickly, because 20 minutes ago
the TV news was about him inspecting railroad work.
As to the reasons for his dismissal, Pu fei, staff of
China Tianwang Human Rights Service gave three
possibilities from internal discussion and other sources.
Pu Fei: First, it could be political struggle. Secondly,
people suspect that the large scale construction of
high speed railway must involve large-scale corruption,
as the supervision is null in China. Thirdly,
it could be related to the bribery cases of the suppliers
in high speed railway construction.
Started as a railway maintenance worker at 19,
Liu Zhijun, now 58, became Minister of Railway
in 2003. He is believed to be promoted all the way
by Jiang Zemin, the CCP』s ex-General Secretary.
During Jiang』s tenure,
Liu was alleged to accompany him in his inspection.
In Sept. 2002, before CCP』s 16th congress meetings,
Liu was appointed as Party Chief and Deputy Minister
in Ministry of Railway. The appointment was made
by Jiang Zemin before his retirement.
Overseas Chinese media said it was a reward
for Liu』s service to him in all those years.
Pu Fei: Liu Zhijun is over doing it to show his
admiration of Jiang Zemin. He even followed Jiang
closely when the latter left office. Politically,
it could be a sign to irritate the current leader.
Western media also catch up the news of Liu』s fall.
French media said, Liu made public appearance on
Feb. 11. But the next day, the official website of
Ministry of Railway removed materials of Liu
and other leaders. The severity of the matter means
it cannot be postponed,
so the top Party leaders made the final decision.
The Guardian cited South China Morning Post in HK,
saying the investigation on Liu could be extended
to other officials, because the Ministry of Railway
has removed materials of other leaders.
There might be other changes in management positions.
Pu Fei: Mr. Ran Yunfei once said, China is a society
of “mutual harm.” No one has any sense of security.
Liu Zhijun could be minister of the world』s No. 1
state-owned enterprise, the Ministry of Railway.
An hour later, however, he could end up in prison,
without any sign of warning.
Li Zhijun』s case of corruption was exposed
right before the CCP』s 18th Congress.
It is also a time when the Tunisians and Egyptians
succeeded in their anti-government protests.
The democratic heat spreads the world.
Some analysts said that CCP threw Liu Zhijun out
at such a time just to avert people』s attention
from the “Jasmine Revolution.”
Pu Fei said, in the past when former Beijing Mayor
Chen Xitong was arrested, people were delighted.
Now Liu Zhijun』s detention makes people ponder.
Pu Fei: Arresting them is only a remedy afterwards.
Why isn』t any supervision beforehand?
There are constructions of highways and railways
everywhere in the world.
How come their ministers are all right?
Our minister is corrupt.
That prompts people to think back.
Pu Fei said, many people mentioned that CCP has to
first stop the persecution of political dissidents and
Falun Gong people,
then set up the supervision system and election system.
Arresting Li Zhijun alone won』t make any difference
of the current situation.
