大陸鐵道部部長劉志軍的突然落馬，引來海內外各界的關注。中共官方媒體僅指出劉志軍涉及嚴重違紀，沒有透露劉志軍落馬的具體原因，由此引來各種猜測。
在2011年大陸返鄉運輸最緊張的時刻，鐵道部部長劉志軍被免職。這個消息對於中國民眾來說無疑是爆炸性的。而且事情發生的非常突然，甚至中國媒體在20分鐘之前還在報導有關劉志軍視察鐵路工作的新聞。
關於劉志軍下臺的原因，中國天網人權事務中心工作人員蒲飛，根據鐵路內部系統的討論和民間資訊來分析，提出三種觀點。
蒲飛：「第一是政治鬥爭。其次有人認為，這麼大的高鐵建設，在中國現在幾乎等於零的那種監督體制下，肯定會出現一種大規模的腐敗現象。還有第三種說法，就是劉志軍有那可能與前段時間出的高鐵供應商的行賄案有關。
現年58歲的劉志軍，19歲入鐵路部門，從養路工做起，2003年拜官鐵道部長。劉志軍一直被認為是中共前總書記江澤民一手提拔起來的。有報導說，他在江澤民任總書記期間，陪同江澤民外出巡視，鞍前馬後的跟隨。
2002年9月，中共十六大前，劉志軍被任命為鐵道部黨組書記、副部長。這一任命是江澤民離任前安排的，海外中文媒體評論，這是江澤民對劉志軍多年伺候的酬勞。
蒲飛：「劉志軍對江有些過分尊崇的舉動，他在江下臺以後，仍然至始跟隨。他們認為從政治體制來說是觸怒現在最高領導人的一個跡象。」
劉志軍的落馬，也引起西方媒體的關注和報導。
據法國媒體的報導，劉志軍在11號還公開露面，但到了12號晚上，鐵道部官方網站已經刪除了劉志軍以及其他領導層的資料，顯示問題十分嚴重，已經無法再拖，而由最高層親自拍板定案。
英國《衛報》2月13號則引述香港《南華早報》報導說，對劉志軍的調查有可能擴大到其他官員，因為鐵道部已經從網站上移除了介紹這些領導層的內容，預計鐵道部將有一些人事變動。
蒲飛：「冉雲飛先生提到過一句話：中國是一個『互害社會』，沒有人有安全感，劉志軍你今天可以是全世界第一大國企鐵道部部長，但你一個小時後極可能變成階下囚，而且沒有任何預兆。有沒有涉及到更高層的腐敗啊，就看他怎麼講了。」
劉志軍腐敗案件曝光的時間，是中共召開「十八大」前夕，同時，突尼西亞的茉莉花革命，以及埃及民眾反獨裁政府大示威活動取得了勝利，民主自由的熱潮正席捲整個國際社會。有評論認為，中共這時候把劉志軍拋出來，是為了轉移民眾對茉莉花革命的視線。
蒲飛認為，以前抓了一個陳希同，大家會高興，但現在抓了一個劉志軍，反而讓人引起反思。
蒲飛：「你抓人只是事後的補救，為什麼沒有事前的監督啊？為什麼全世界都在修高速公路、修高鐵，他們的部長不出事，我們的部長要出事。這已經開始讓大家進行反思了。」
蒲飛說，在中國體制內外都有很多人提出，中共必須先解決政治犯和「法輪功」問題、以及「監督體制」和「選舉體制」的問題，現在抓一個劉志軍出來，只是一種換湯不換藥的做法。
Inside Story of the Demoted Minister of Railway
The sudden dismissal of China』s Minister of Railway,
Liu Zhijun, gets wide attention both home and abroad.
Official media only said that it was due to Liu』s
"severe violation of discipline" without any details,
stirring up all sorts of speculation.
Liu Zhijun was removed from office at the peak of
the New Year season transportation.
It is undoubtedly explosive news.
It also happened very quickly, because 20 minutes ago
the TV news was about him inspecting railroad work.
As to the reasons for his dismissal, Pu fei, staff of
China Tianwang Human Rights Service gave three
possibilities from internal discussion and other sources.
Pu Fei: First, it could be political struggle. Secondly,
people suspect that the large scale construction of
high speed railway must involve large-scale corruption,
as the supervision is null in China. Thirdly,
it could be related to the bribery cases of the suppliers
in high speed railway construction.
Started as a railway maintenance worker at 19,
Liu Zhijun, now 58, became Minister of Railway
in 2003. He is believed to be promoted all the way
by Jiang Zemin, the CCP』s ex-General Secretary.
During Jiang』s tenure,
Liu was alleged to accompany him in his inspection.
In Sept. 2002, before CCP』s 16th congress meetings,
Liu was appointed as Party Chief and Deputy Minister
in Ministry of Railway. The appointment was made
by Jiang Zemin before his retirement.
Overseas Chinese media said it was a reward
for Liu』s service to him in all those years.
Pu Fei: Liu Zhijun is over doing it to show his
admiration of Jiang Zemin. He even followed Jiang
closely when the latter left office. Politically,
it could be a sign to irritate the current leader.
Western media also catch up the news of Liu』s fall.
French media said, Liu made public appearance on
Feb. 11. But the next day, the official website of
Ministry of Railway removed materials of Liu
and other leaders. The severity of the matter means
it cannot be postponed,
so the top Party leaders made the final decision.
The Guardian cited South China Morning Post in HK,
saying the investigation on Liu could be extended
to other officials, because the Ministry of Railway
has removed materials of other leaders.
There might be other changes in management positions.
Pu Fei: Mr. Ran Yunfei once said, China is a society
of 「mutual harm.」 No one has any sense of security.
Liu Zhijun could be minister of the world』s No. 1
state-owned enterprise, the Ministry of Railway.
An hour later, however, he could end up in prison,
without any sign of warning.
Li Zhijun』s case of corruption was exposed
right before the CCP』s 18th Congress.
It is also a time when the Tunisians and Egyptians
succeeded in their anti-government protests.
The democratic heat spreads the world.
Some analysts said that CCP threw Liu Zhijun out
at such a time just to avert people』s attention
from the 「Jasmine Revolution.」
Pu Fei said, in the past when former Beijing Mayor
Chen Xitong was arrested, people were delighted.
Now Liu Zhijun』s detention makes people ponder.
Pu Fei: Arresting them is only a remedy afterwards.
Why isn』t any supervision beforehand?
There are constructions of highways and railways
everywhere in the world.
How come their ministers are all right?
Our minister is corrupt.
That prompts people to think back.
Pu Fei said, many people mentioned that CCP has to
first stop the persecution of political dissidents and
Falun Gong people,
then set up the supervision system and election system.
Arresting Li Zhijun alone won』t make any difference
of the current situation.
